• Example Line Analysis Scenarios for Sports Betting

    Added - May 5, 2014 Sports

    There's a lot of advice out there about sports betting, but it's not often that someone will walk you through the analysis of a betting line. With that in mind, we're going to walk you through a step-by-step analysis of a betting line and give you the ideas to think about on your own that you would need to perform the same type of analysis on real-world situations to try to find bets that are advantageous. This money line analysis is the starting point for all profitable sports bettors, and it's an excellent place to start for anyone who is looking to improve their results.

    Suppose there's a game between Atlanta (+145) and New York (-115), and we're considering placing a $100 bet on one of the two teams. We can figure when a bet on Atlanta is going to be profitable by dividing the lose amount ($100) by the sum of the lose amount and the win amount ($145) to get $100/$245 = 40.8 percent. This means that this bet on Atlanta will be profitable if we think they are winning more than 40.8 percent of the time (or losing less than 59.2 percent). Note that this is the same as New York losing more than 40.8 percent of the time (or winning less than 59.2 percent).

    Now let's do a similar analysis on the New York bet. The lose amount is $115 and the win amount is $100, so we can do the lose amount divided by the sum of both amounts to get the necessary winning percentage for a bet on New York to be profitable. This comes to $115/$215 = 53.4 percent. That means if New York wins more than 53.4 percent, the bet on this team is profitable. This is the same as saying if Atlanta loses more than 53.4 percent, if Atlanta wins less than 46.6 percent, or if New York loses less than 46.6 percent.

    This type of analysis will tell you exactly when bets are profitable. What you have to do from here is try to figure out if you think any of these conditions are going to be met. You can do this by analyzing the performance of their players, the past games or whatever else is going on in the news. The weather conditions and whether the teams are home or away are normally things to start to look at as well when you get into this in some depth.