• Recursive Analysis Techniques for Sports Betting

    Added - Oct. 6, 2014 Sports

    If you're betting on any type of sport between two people or two teams, being a winning bettor requires you to accurate assess the winning chances of each side to look for profitable bets. One of the best methods of going about this is what's known as recursive analysis. The idea is that you're able to do a process over and over again to zero in on what you believe the winning chances of either side will be or at least the average number of points that you expect each side to win in the case of spread betting.

    Let's take the offensive capabilities of an NFL team as an example. You can start off by looking at how many points they have scored on average against the teams they have faced. This would give you a very elementary idea of their offensive output, but you have to take into consideration that they have faced different teams with different defensive capabilities. From there, you can make your view more specific by trying to quantify the value of each defense they have faced by looking at the number of points each defense has allowed against different teams they have faced.

    The problem at this point is the same as what you ran into earlier: These defenses have faced teams with different offensive capabilities. From there, you have the recursive of this type of exercise when you look at the defenses that these offensive teams have faced. This process continues over and over until you get down several "levels" deep, and that's when the values start to converge to a set number based on the averages of each of these levels. While you'll be more accurate as you get further into the season (since your teams will have faced more opponents), you'll be able to do similar with most teams early in the season by looking at preseason games.

    Overall, these recursive techniques require a lot of analysis and the management of a lot of information, and you'll probably want to use some kind of organizational structure like a spreadsheet or a special notebook for doing this analysis and keeping up with all of the game scores required to make these decisions. By putting in the work, you can maximize your chances of finding bets that you have an advantage on, and this is the whole point of trying to find an advantage when it comes to sports betting.